My official Oscar predictions 2012

I reserve the right to change my mind on the Best Actor category Sunday before the Awards show starts. In the mean time, I have done my homework, I have listened to songs and scores, I have seen the movies and shorts, and I have watched the trailers of the films in limbo that are not available for me to watch. Hugo has 11 nominations and will win three. The Artist will win at least five of its 10 nominations including Best Picture and Best Director. Some folks express disdain for the predictability of the Oscars. This is not something I experience. I make it my goal each year to be better at predicting and it never seems like a done deal to me. When I start getting 24 out of 24 right on my ballot, more than once to rule out a fluke hole in one, than I may consider the Academy Awards ceremony too predictable. Even then, you never know what people are going to say, what the host is going to do and very significantly, what the fashions will be! This year's show is in the steady hands of veteran nine time host Billy Crystal.

The second scanned ballot is how I would vote, what I think deserves to win. It is really gratifying to fill a ballot out in that way. Voting for predictions of who is likely to win is very different than selecting what films you think and feel deserve to win. I changed my mind about Best Documentary Short and neglected to remove one of the votes in that category. My choice would be for God is the Bigger Elvis. Five of my how I would vote if I were in the Academy selections, are predicted winners -- out of 24. I think I have a good shot at correctly predicting 21/24 right on Sunday. That would be a personal best.